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AbstractThis study uses simulation over real and artificial networks to compare the eventual adoption outcomes of network interventions, operationalized as idealized contagion processes with different sets of seeds. While the performance depends on the details of both the network and behaviour adoption mechanisms, interventions with seeds that are central to the network are more effective than random selection in the majority of simulations, with faster or more complete adoption throughout the network. These results provide additional theoretical justification for utilizing relevant network information in the design of public health behavior interventions.

The growing rate of obesity has recently required governments to divert considerable resources in the promotion of healthy lifestyles. We explored the relative effectiveness in inducing healthy behaviour change of three different communication strategies about the benefits of an intervention that reduces the mortality risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and encourages respondents to embrace healthier lifestyles. We designed a Discrete Choice Experiments questionnaire to analyse the trade-off between lifestyles, defined in terms of diet and exercise, and reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk. We set three ways of framing an identical benefit: (A) as a reduction in mortality risk from cardiovascular disease, (B) as an increase in months of life expectancy, and (C) as an increase in the probability of reaching an individual's full lifespan. The experiment was tailored for each subject in the sample according to his/her individual's baseline information on diet and physical activity. During the period February 2010–July 2011, we interviewed 1008 individuals in Northern Ireland, split randomly into three samples for the three CVD risk reduction frames. Considering the models' goodness of fit and significance, we conclude that the most effective way of communicating these CVD health benefits is using an increase in life expectancy, since with this frame individuals are more inclined to state that they would change to a healthier lifestyle.

The growing rate of obesity has recently required governments to divert considerable resources in the promotion of healthy lifestyles. We explored the relative effectiveness in inducing healthy behaviour change of three different communication strategies about the benefits of an intervention that reduces the mortality risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and encourages respondents to embrace healthier lifestyles. We designed a Discrete Choice Experiments questionnaire to analyse the trade-off between lifestyles, defined in terms of diet and exercise, and reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk. We set three ways of framing an identical benefit: (A) as a reduction in mortality risk from cardiovascular disease, (B) as an increase in months of life expectancy, and (C) as an increase in the probability of reaching an individual's full lifespan. The experiment was tailored for each subject in the sample according to his/her individual's baseline information on diet and physical activity. During the period February 2010 - July 2011, we interviewed 1,008 individuals in Northern Ireland, split randomly into three samples for the three CVD risk reduction frames. Considering the models' goodness of fit and significance, we conclude that the most effective way of communicating these CVD health benefits is using an increase in life expectancy, since with this frame individuals are more inclined to state that they would change to a healthier lifestyle.

This article presents the findings of an exploratory randomised controlled trial of the PAX Good Behaviour Game (PAX GBG) in Northern Ireland. The PAX GBG is an evidence‐based universal prevention programme designed to improve mental health by increasing self‐regulation, academic engagement, and decreasing disruptive behaviour in children. The study was designed in line with the Medical Research Council guidance on the development of complex interventions and is based on the Medical Research Council framework, more specifically within a Phase 2 exploratory trial. The study used a cluster randomised controlled trial design with a total of 15 schools (19 classes) randomised to intervention and control. This article reports specifically on the outcome of self‐regulation with 355 elementary school pupils in year 3 (age M = 7.40, SD = 0.30). Participating schools in the trial were located in areas of socio‐economic disadvantage. The teachers in the intervention group received training in the delivery of the PAX GBG and implemented the PAX GBG intervention for 12 weeks. A range of pre‐ and post‐test measures, including child reported behaviours, were undertaken. After the 12 weeks of implementation, this exploratory trial provided some evidence that the PAX GBG may help improve self‐regulation (d = .42) in participating pupils, while the findings suggest that it may offer a feasible mental health prevention and early intervention approach for Northern Ireland classrooms. However, a larger definitive trial would be needed to verify the findings in this study.

The Scoping Study was initiated in response to the Programme for Government 2016-2021 indicator, 'Improve the quality of life for people with disabilities and their families'. The Disability Research Network was approached to assist the Department for Communities in the development of this indicator. The scoping study included 5 objectives: (1) To review the international literature on quality of life (QoL) measurements for people with disabilities and their families; (2) To develop recommendations for key definitions; (3) To assess existing and emerging data sources for potential use; (4) To develop recommendations for a preferred option; and (5) To test the recommended QoL measure.

Abstract Background Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer's perspective. Methods Employees used a 'loyalty card' to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates. Results The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. Conclusions The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer's perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable "business model" which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer's perspective. Methods: Employees used a 'loyalty card' to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates. Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer's perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable "business model" which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

Background: Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced increasing rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the last decade and lower 5-year survival rates compared to high-income countries (HICs) where the implementation of screening and treatment services have advanced. This review scoped and mapped the literature regarding the content, implementation and uptake of CRC screening interventions as well as opportunities and challenges for the implementation of CRC screening interventions in LMICs. Methods: We systematically followed a five-step scoping review framework to identify and review relevant literature about CRC screening in LMICs, written in the English language before February 2020. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar for studies targeting the general, asymptomatic, at-risk adult population. The TIDieR tool and an implementation checklist were used to extract data from empirical studies; and we extracted data-informed insights from policy reviews and commentaries. Results: CRC screening interventions (n = 24 studies) were implemented in nine middle-income countries. Population-based screening programmes (n = 11) as well as small-scale screening interventions (n = 13) utilised various recruitment strategies. Interventions that recruited participants face-to-face (alone or in combination with other recruitment strategies) (10/15), opportunistic clinic-based screening interventions (5/6) and educational interventions combined with screening (3/4), seemed to be the strategies that consistently achieved an uptake of > 65% in LMICs. FOBT/FIT and colonoscopy uptake ranged between 14 and 100%. The most commonly reported implementation indicator was 'uptake/reach'. There was an absence of detail regarding implementation indicators and there is a need to improve reporting practice in order to disseminate learning about how to implement programmes. Conclusion: Opportunities and challenges for the implementation of CRC screening programmes were related to the reporting of CRC cases and screening, cost-effective screening methods, knowledge about CRC and screening, staff resources and training, infrastructure of the health care system, financial resources, public health campaigns, policy commitment from governments, patient navigation, planning of screening programmes and quality assurance.

Introduction The QCOVID algorithm is a risk prediction tool for infection and subsequent hospitalisation/death due to SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it is being used in important policy-making decisions by the UK and devolved governments for combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including deliberations on shielding and vaccine prioritisation. There are four statistical validations exercises currently planned for the QCOVID algorithm, using data pertaining to England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, respectively. This paper presents a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm. Methods and analysis We will use open, retrospective cohort studies to assess the performance of the QCOVID risk prediction tool in each of the four UK nations. Linked datasets comprising of primary and secondary care records, virological testing data and death registrations will be assembled in trusted research environments in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We will seek to have population level coverage as far as possible within each nation. The following performance metrics will be calculated by strata: Harrell's C, Brier Score, R 2 and Royston's D. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from relevant ethics bodies in each UK nation. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journal.

INTRODUCTION: The QCOVID algorithm is a risk prediction tool for infection and subsequent hospitalisation/death due to SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it is being used in important policy-making decisions by the UK and devolved governments for combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including deliberations on shielding and vaccine prioritisation. There are four statistical validations exercises currently planned for the QCOVID algorithm, using data pertaining to England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, respectively. This paper presents a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use open, retrospective cohort studies to assess the performance of the QCOVID risk prediction tool in each of the four UK nations. Linked datasets comprising of primary and secondary care records, virological testing data and death registrations will be assembled in trusted research environments in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We will seek to have population level coverage as far as possible within each nation. The following performance metrics will be calculated by strata: Harrell's C, Brier Score, R(2) and Royston's D. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approvals have been obtained from relevant ethics bodies in each UK nation. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journal.

Introduction: The QCOVID algorithm is a risk prediction tool for infection and subsequent hospitalisation/death due to SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it is being used in important policy-making decisions by the UK and devolved governments for combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including deliberations on shielding and vaccine prioritisation. There are four statistical validations exercises currently planned for the QCOVID algorithm, using data pertaining to England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, respectively. This paper presents a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm. Methods and analysis: We will use open, retrospective cohort studies to assess the performance of the QCOVID risk prediction tool in each of the four UK nations. Linked datasets comprising of primary and secondary care records, virological testing data and death registrations will be assembled in trusted research environments in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We will seek to have population level coverage as far as possible within each nation. The following performance metrics will be calculated by strata: Harrell's C, Brier Score, R2 and Royston's D. Ethics and dissemination: Approvals have been obtained from relevant ethics bodies in each UK nation. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journal.

Introduction: Reductions in traffic speed can potentially offer multiple health and public health benefits. In 2016, implementation of 20mph (30kph) speed limit interventions began in Edinburgh (city-wide) and Belfast (city centre). The aims of this paper are to describe 1) the broad theoretical approach and design of two natural experimental studies to evaluate the 20mph speed limits in Edinburgh and Belfast and 2) how these studies allowed us to test and explore theoretical mechanisms of 20mph speed limit interventions. Methods: The evaluation consisted of several work packages, each with different research foci, including the political decision-making processes that led to the schemes, their implementation processes, outcomes (including traffic speed, perceptions of safety, and casualties) and cost effectiveness. We used a combination of routinely and locally collected quantitative data and primary quantitative and qualitative data. Results: The evaluation identified many contextual factors influencing the likelihood of 20mph speed limits reaching the political agenda. There were substantial differences between the two sites in several aspects related to implementation. Reductions in speed resulted in significant reductions in collisions and casualties, particularly in Edinburgh, which had higher average speed at baseline. The monetary value of collisions and casualties prevented are likely to exceed the costs of the intervention and thus the overall balance of costs and benefits is likely to be favourable. Conclusions: Innovative study designs, including natural experiments, are important for assessing the impact of 'real world' public health interventions. Using multiple methods, this project enabled a deeper understanding of not only the effects of the intervention but the factors that explain how and why the intervention and the effects did or did not occur. Importantly it has shown that 20mph speed limits can lead to reductions in speed, collisions and casualties, and are therefore an effective public health intervention.